Let’s approach the geopolitical crisis at Russia’s borders like we would approach a usual Organizational conflict that has high chances of negatively affecting the whole Company. We’ll do that with questions but before that, we’ll start with the Vision.
The first thing we have to do is to lay down a long-term Vision (or a possible Vision) and see whether that is aligned to the Modern World and at the same time, resonates with some of the claimed wishes of the Russian population. The Vision would be the RusNAPTO (The Russian-led North Atlantic-Pacific Treaty Organization). This would be an Organization having at its core Russia and providing similar protection services as NATO claims to provide, but not only around the North Atlantic but also around the North Pacific to make it a really ambitious vision. We can agree that this Vision could be constructive and at the same time, it would remove the unconstructive rhetoric that Russia has to do something bad to a country because somebody else (maybe a NATO member) did something bad to another country. At the same time, this vision would remove Russia from the shadow of the perceived competition and would put it in the center of the Northern hemisphere.
Having the Goal and the Vision laid down the question would be how to deliver the vision by using all the modern infrastructure, all the modern means of negotiation and communication, the Social Media, and so on, so that the Environment (made up of all the other countries) welcomes the Vision instead of resisting it, fighting it and ultimately punishing it.
Further, instead of giving advice, it would be more constructive to ask questions and let the stakeholders answer for themselves:
- How can RusNAPTO attract more members in the modern world in which every action is monitored by thousands of smartphones, drones, satellites and then the action is debated on various media outlets impacting the economy of Russia and its allies?
- Would it be more constructive for RusNAPTO to attract whole countries or just parts of them? (parts that might have been hit by war and destruction)
- Would there be an advantage to RusNAPTO versus NATO? (maybe the Eastern European prices at decent quality and high expertise could be something)
- Would it attract current NATO members? Or it should declare that they would provide good protection service only for new customers and the customers of the competition should stay with the competition? Would that be fair towards the NATO customers that would want to switch suppliers?
- Would RusNAPTO try to create a Cartel with NATO providing similar high prices with no distinguished service difference?
- Would a member of RusNAPTO be allowed to be a member of NATO as well and pay to both organizations? or it would be an exclusive alliance?
- Since the American administration never claimed that NATO has mounted defense systems in Eastern and Central Europe to protect themselves from Russia, would RusNAPTO (after attracting all the other countries from NATO to join it), try to attract the US as well to join it and pay for its protection services?
- Could RusNAPTO bankrupt NATO with lower prices and a better service? Would that be a constructive goal?
- Could RusNAPTO do things in such a modern and attractive manner that it would become RusAPTO covering both the whole Atlantic and the whole Pacific from North to South?
- How would this modern RusNAPTO defend better its Russian citizens? A) by negotiating and attracting member states from all over the world to join it or, B) by sending Russian soldiers to fight various nations and convince them by force to join it?
- What type of Leadership would RusNAPTO require? A confident leadership with an optimistic outcome of the world in mind? or a scared offended Leadership always ready to sacrifice its citizens for military ventures doomed to fail?
- How would RusNAPTO position itself versus the competition? Would it position itself as a confident reliable protection service provider or a victim of the competition always retaliating and bulling the nations around it and inside of it? Which would be more attractive to new possible members?
- Would the Leadership of this RusNAPTO work on using the local mentality in order to transform the country into a modern one, or it would continue to squeeze everything from its citizens just because the citizens can bear with that and the leaders can’t afford to hire real advisors because of all the nepotism?
- Would the Leadership empower its citizens and its allies or treat them like lower rank stakeholders with limited responsibilities and limited rights?
- Would it aim to build Trust between its members or work with intimidation? What would be more attractive for getting new members in?
- Would it focus on a transparent Trustful communication or on disinformation, lies and propaganda?
- Would this RusNAPTO be a burden on the shoulders of the Russian citizens? or it would make them feel proud of the real Modern Power their country has become in the world?
If anyone claims that one of the above choices is not available because of another power, that person stays in the shadow of that other power, instead of understanding and focusing on the advantages of the system in the discussion.
I’m sure the majority of the countries that were invaded by various Russian leaders in the past century would move over that trauma and evaluate the pragmatic possibility to join such an alliance. History showed that half a century does wonders in that respect IF AND ONLY IF Wise Leadership is in place after the aggression has happened. Maybe at some point, when the wounds from these 8 years of hybrid war against Ukraine would have healed, even Ukraine would be tempted to join this RusNAPTO, but at least 30 more years are needed for that to happen. For now, the current Russian leadership didn’t advertise itself as being attractive for the Ukrainians, Georgians, and Chechens (to say the least).
Regardless of the evolution of Russia, the current Russian politician is either trying to implement his ambitions in the worst possible manner with expired actions from the past century or is just trying to destroy the Russian system in the fastest possible manner.
If nothing else, the current Russian Leadership holds Russia a prisoner of the Past instead of leading it to become a Real Power of the Future.